Mexico’s fastest growing export in 2026 isn’t computers
MXPE Weekly Essentials ft. what happens to a drug lord’s fortune, tequila tariffs, and other highlights in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.
MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.
Uncharted Mexico: Extractive expansion
Mexico’s exports have hit another historic high. The Mexico Political Economist has covered how much of this boom is down to the AI-driven demand for Mexican assembled computers. One that does not generate much value in Mexico.
There is another sector whose export value has grown at double the rate of computers—so called “extractive exports.”
Source: INEGI
These, in the Mexican statistical classification system, are the non-oil products mined from the ground. Mexico’s main extractive exports are gold and silver, which have seen big dips in price throughout 2026. So, how has the value of mining exports grown so significantly in this same period?
The main driver of growth over the past six months has been copper, which has not only continued to steadily appreciate over the past year, but has also seen big upticks in export volume. Mining companies and refiners, like Grupo México, are tapping into their reserves to cash in on the glut. A glut caused in large part by… the AI boom demand for copper.
Exports of lead have grown by triple digits in 2026, but Mexico’s monthly copper exports are comparable to a year’s worth of lead exports. Overall, extractives made up less than 2% of the value exports last year. Today they are 2.9%.
Last week’s highlights:
Capone me once…—Donald Trump is claiming a finder’s fee on all of Ismael “el Mayo” Zambada’s wealth, after the cartel kingpin was sentenced to life in prison in the US. That’s if he can get his hands on it… A US federal judge has ordered the decommissioning of $15 million dollars. The only issue is that none of el Mayo’s alleged wealth can be found under his name, said Mexico’s security secretary Omar García Harfuch.
New wave—Mexico is expecting a new wave of tariffs from the US. Forced labour rules are to come into force—these could block shrimp exports—while production “overcapacity” tariffs could hit Mexican manufactures generally. Nevertheless, according to a study by Global Trade Alert, Mexico is one of the countries least affected by these tariff updates thanks to the USMCA.
Oil theft economy—Huachicol—oil theft—continues to concentrate the attentions of the Mexican government a week after a former governor was arrested for the crime. This time a makeshift refinery operated by organised crime was discovered. A 100,000% increase in imports labeled as calcium chloride was also found to be a cover up for even more stolen fuel.
Don’t get distracted by… A leaked Mazzucato document
Last week, a presentation by UCL economist and advisor to the Sheinbaum administration, Mariana Mazzucato, was criticised widely by the opposition. This analysis of Mexico’s industrial policy apparently was a leak of a working document presented for further discussion with the Mexican government, a person with knowledge of the issue told The Mexico Political Economist. A more complete study will be published soon.
Local zoom in on… Hangover from 2024 in Tequila, Jalisco
The threat of plague looms over Mexico’s tequila plantations as millions of tonnes are abandoned in the fields. A glut in agave planting (the core component of the drink) in 2024 has led to a collapse in prices which have fallen by 92% in a year. This makes just harvesting the agaves unprofitable, leaving them open to pests that grow on the fallow plantations only to spread to the rest.
Though sales of tequila grew last year, volume has fallen. The Mexican government in part blames tariffs for this; with the economy secretary Marcelo Ebrard pointing at “some countries” that have up to 150% import fees on tequila. He is now threatening reciprocal tariffs in response.
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