The coming civil war in Mexico's ruling party

Morena is a political party struggling to keep itself together even as it is set to triumph electorally.

“The leadership of Morena [Mexico’s ruling party] has clearly distanced itself from the rank and file. It has left behind the ideals from when it was a social movement and has instead imposed a top-down, corporatist party.”

Mexico is days away from a crucial presidential election, and among all parties and camps there seems to be one overwhelming point of agreement: the country’s ruling party does not work. The hard words quoted above did not come from some opposition politician or a dissatisfied citizen, they are inscribed in the official election manifesto written and published by Morena. 

Despite being ahead in the polls, the morale within Morena doesn’t feel like a political party on the verge of electoral victory.

A decade ago, when the Movement for National Regeneration (Morena’s official, long form name) was a newly minted and minor political party, internal squabbles would have been interesting trivia for Mexican political analysts. Today, as Morena stands at the cusp of taking power across all levels of government, how and why Mexico’s leading party is set to tear itself apart is essential to understanding the country—and how to best navigate its politics, business environment, and shifting power structures. 

The glue that holds the party together, president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is set to depart from the political stage this October. Whether Mexico’s likely next president Claudia Sheinbaum—an early morenista herself—will be able to tame this unwieldy political beast or whether she’ll find that the real opposition will emerge from within her own party is the greatest test she’ll face after this election.

From social movement to political party

The worry that keeps political pundits up at night as election day looms is whether president López Obrador will actually relinquish power. More time and ink should probably be spent on a political force far more likely to undermine his successor’s administration.