Mexico has got too good at dealing with Trump

The price of extended negotiations with the US is political isolation for president Sheinbaum.

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The Mexican government is celebrating, once again, that tariff threats from the US have been postponed for another three months. It is seen as a vindication of president Claudia Sheinbaum’s “cool heads” strategy when dealing with the US.

It has definitely worked better than critics give credit for. Yes, Mexico is not in the clear yet, but time has acted as a potent lobby within the White House. Even the usually hyperbolic Donald Trump was subdued in his message giving Mexico 90 more days to negotiate, acknowledging “the complexities of a Deal with Mexico”. Meanwhile, Canada and Brazil are being slapped with punitive tariffs for its assertiveness.

Instead of chest thumping, Mexico has taken the Trump administration at face value and extracted a few concessions that previously would have been thought of as unthinkable:

• The US government now recognises its co-responsibility as an arms supplier in the disaster that is the Drug War.

• The Mexican government is carrying out policy that previously would have got significant pushback from the US and business. This includes tariffs to protect Mexico’s own economy from subsidised Asian imports and the construction of a draconian intelligence apparatus. All complaints usually get told that these are now necessary moves to placate Trump

However, Sheinbaum is no longer throwing parties in downtown Mexico City, like she did the first time tariffs were delayed. The reality that this negotiation will be a hard slog has sunk in. The complexity and importance of the US-Mexico security, trade, water, migratory, and health relationships run so deep that it seems unlikely any quick and easy solution will be reached any time soon.

Trump can afford to drag these talks on, Mexico can’t. Investment is stalled so long as uncertainty continues and the chances of a slip up on the Mexican side increase with every passing minute. This is because, though Sheinbaum is applauded by business, the media, and voters—amongst whom her popularity has stabilised at an 80% approval rating—she is actually increasingly alone.