MXPE Weekly Essentials

The past week's highlights in Mexican politics, policy, and markets—without the politicking.

Far from the media limelight, Chiapas is in the throes of the worst violence it has experienced in at least a decade. The murder rate in the state is almost double in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period of every other year since 2015. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador visited Chiapas last week, blaming the violence on drug and migrant trafficking. The Guatemalan Army has extraordinarily been deployed to the border to prevent the conflict from spilling over.

Violence in Mexico often spikes locally as gangs fight over smuggling routes. But Chiapas’ situation is particularly dire given its history of extreme poverty and the weak presence of the State, especially after the Indigenous Zapatista uprising 30 years ago—allowing organised crime to fill that vacuum, according to local civil society organisations.

Though the president himself has admitted that security has been one of his administration’s weakest points, Chiapas’ remoteness and its people’s reluctance to trust the Mexican armed forces (used to repress them more often than to protect them) make it an especially tough challenge for the government.

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Uncharted Mexico: Consumer spending

Private spending is about 12% above its 2018 levels in Mexico. This has been attributed to increases in the Mexican minimum wage and social programmes preceding the election. It is alarming that, even though the election happened on June 2, spending started to go down from March until the latest figures in May.

Source: Inegi

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