Is Mexico going bust?

A breakdown of Sheinbaum’s brutal austerity budget.

Ruthless austerity is probably not what commentators worried about “socialist Sheinbaum” had on their bingo cards. But that’s what Mexico got in this administration’s first budget. 

It has never been easier to follow the money: The government’s priorities are laid out in plain black and blood red. More social programmes and infrastructure, less of everything else. Government bureaucracies have been asked to tighten their belts.  

But not all is as it seems on the spreadsheets. The 2025 budget is also a way for this government to consolidate its vision of the Mexican state—more centralised, more efficient, and more focused on a strange combination of spreadsheet slashing and social spending. A balancing act meant to please voters and the markets simultaneously. 

But, with geo-political strife and Donald Trump on the horizon, can Mexico afford to have its cake and eat it too?