Is Mexico’s election front runner really in charge?

Despite being almost certain to win, Claudia Sheinbaum is dogged by doubts she’ll truly be able to take control of the presidency.

Claudia Sheinbaum looks set to win Mexico’s presidency. All polls place her at a double digit lead from her nearest rival, Xochitl Gálvez. No contender in modern Mexican history has been able to surmount odds like these. So, given she’s proved to be one of history’s most successful candidates, why are many Mexicans doubting Sheinbaum’s ability to lead?

Old fashioned sexism may well be to blame. Both candidates have been exposed to much of it. However, Sheinbaum has been in positions of power before. She was Mexico City’s mayor for years and questions about her ability to rule were far less prominent then. The fact that the presidential frontrunner is a woman is only one of other forces at play—many of which have led people to worry that she will not be in charge if and when she wins. 

Sheinbaum became the presidential front runner after being anointed by Mexico's popular and powerful president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Their party, Morena, holds most power at the state and federal levels. It gives them sway over the public purse, which Morena and the president have been accused of dipping into to promote their candidate. 

Regardless of whether these advantages have been fair or not, Sheinbaum has undoubtedly benefited from them. But, the more the candidate approaches her ultimate goal, the more the ruling party and the president begin to look like political baggage.

The blurring of government and the ruling party. The overbearing presence of a strong presidential predecessor. Worries about a struggle for power among the old and the new guards. We’ve been here before.

Mexican history is full of precedents that may give keen observers a glimpse into a future Sheinbaum administration—both in the candidate’s recent political battles as well as in Mexico’s broader past. A woman president may be unprecedented in Mexico, but the power dynamics she will be exposed to are certainly not.