China’s real plan for Mexico

Fears of Mexico becoming a Chinese backdoor to the US are overblown, but Chinese interest in Mexico should not be underestimated.

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All wars rely on propaganda to keep spirits up and minds focused. This is true of commercial wars too. Facts are inflated, cherrypicked, or thrown by the wayside altogether. Something similar has happened to the story the United States has been telling itself about China’s role within and plans for Mexico. 

Ever since the US-China trade war started, a strong suspicion has surrounded the arrival of Chinese companies to Mexico. The common wisdom has dictated that, as trade barriers have gone up for Chinese goods going into the US market, China has sought ways to bypass them.

And this is true. The problem is that, as it often happens, the US has made itself the protagonist in a story in which it is a very important secondary character.

Far too much attention is being placed on Mexico “becoming a backdoor into the US” for Chinese goods. This is indeed happening to some extent. The Mexico Political Economist previously described the practice of deliberate mislabelling Chinese goods as Made in Mexico to get around US tariffs. However, the scale of this issue as compared to what China is actually doing in Mexico is mismatched. 

The narrative that Chinese trade with Mexico is at all time highs, for instance, runs up against the truth. The value of Mexico’s trade with China has stalled and currently sits at 2021 levels after years of constant growth were interrupted by the pandemic. This isn’t to say that many of these imports might be passing through Mexico only to be reexported into the US; it’s just that the trend many voices in the US media and Washington worry about just doesn’t seem to be there.

Look at the facts on the ground, and China does actually seem to have a plan for Mexico. One that will have long lasting effects on the relations of China, Mexico, and even, the United States.