MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Google vs Mexico’s tax authority—A judge has exempted Google from having to share user information with the country’s tax authority (SAT). The move has prompted the ruling Morena party to call for expanded rules on digital privacy.
  Since the arrival of president Claudia Sheinbaum to power, the SAT has been on an aggressive collection spree, in the hopes of getting ahold of tax evaders. In 2026, a law was specifically passed to identify those offering digital services without paying tax on their income.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Too big to fail—Concerned about the small size of the applicants to its mixed renewables infrastructure projects, the Mexican government is requiring potential investors to up the size of their bid bonds to $10,000 dollars for every megawatt they seek to offer. The condition is for applicants to prove their solvency given the large cashflows, time frames, and investments required by these energy projects.
  These include plans for up to 15 new wind farms that need to be up and running by 2030 at the latest and which will require a capital injection estimated at $5 billion dollars.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Uncharted Mexico: Lies, damned lies, and employment stats

The Mexico Political Economist has previously been rather negative about Mexico’s positive job growth late last year. The addition of gig workers with no access to the benefits of formal employment to the government’s statistics seemed less like job creation and more like a technicality.

The shoe is now on the other foot. Monthly job creation fell in May for the first time this year. The shrinkage was not precipitous and for the country with the lowest unemployment rate in the OECD, it’s more of a warning shot, but there was also good news hidden in the stats.

Source: IMSS

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Olinia—Many doubted it could be done with such a small budget and in so little time, but the Mexican government-backed electric vehicle (EV), Olinia, was presented yesterday by president Claudia Sheinbaum, as promised, on the eve of the World Cup.
  The boxy vehicle is not meant to compete with Chinese or US EVs, like BYD or Tesla, but rather it is to be in a category of its own:

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Slim pickings—Last week’s EU trade treaty signature was followed by a €3 billion euro ($3.5 billion dollar) promise to finance future infrastructure projects by the European Investment Bank. Pharmaceutical companies also got together to pledge $1.2 billion dollars in research, medical devices, and strengthening local production. And Carlos Slim sat down for his annual press conference and said he too would be plugging $5 billion dollars into the Mexican economy—mainly in the energy sector.
  These investments have the domestic market in their sights, as ongoing trade talks with the US continue to depress export-driven investment in the country.

• No news is good news?—The only conclusion of the first round of USMCA

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• INEligibility rules—President Claudia Sheinbaum has put forth a bill that would have Mexico’s independent electoral agency (INE) do the due diligence behind political parties’ candidates. INE will have access to

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• More power to them—The Energy Ministry has continued its call for private investment in electricity generation. Another round of contracts was announced, and for the first time energy storage was put up to bid. Renewables were also up for grabs, confirming that the aim to increase green energy generation from 24% to 38% by 2030 falls almost entirely on the private sector’s shoulders despite the law saying the State must control 54% of electric generation.

• Judicial reform reform—The government has confirmed that the “second half”

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• That’s a wrap!—Thank you to all those who sent in applications for The Mexico Political Economist’s Project Lead position. Watch this space as we look forward to launching the Plan México Project.

• Mexico-Canada Strong—Mexico’s Economy Secretary assured a Canadian audience that bilateral trade would remain free—despite ongoing threats from the US. Both countries promised to not fray in their common push to preserve the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
  These declarations of mutual affection occurred during a Mexican reciprocal trade mission to Canada. There, over 200 businesses signed a wide spread of

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Applications close today—Send yours for an opportunity to become The Mexico Political Economist’s Project Lead for the Plan Mexico Project.

• And in with the new—Technically, the nation’s president was not meant to be a protagonist at the ruling Morena party’s national congress last week. Claudia Sheinbaum resigned from it on ascending to power. Yet, her fingerprints could be seen across the party’s new leadership election:

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Have you told your friends?—The Mexico Political Economist is still looking to recruit Project Lead for the Plan Mexico Project. Have a look at the Job description and apply before May 5th.

• Tier-two takedown—El Mencho, the boss of Mexico’s most powerful cartel, was captured and killed in February. Now Mexican forces have successfully moved to capture El Mencho’s lieutenant—and possible successor—that got away.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• The clock is ticking!—Don’t miss your chance to join The Mexico Political Economist team. Here’s the Job description. Applications close on May 5th.
  

• Pemex-gate after Pemex-gate—It is now a well-known dynamic: Outrage at any accusation of wrongdoing followed by bewilderment that the accusations ended up being true. This is yet again the state of Pemex, Mexico’s State-run oil company, as it revealed that

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• The Mexico Political Economist is hiring—Had you not heard? Take a look at the job description. Perhaps you’ll become our next Project Lead! Applications close on May 5th.

• Guilty until proven innocent—The news about fracking overshadowed what in most other moments would have been by far the biggest news—and debate—of the week.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Own goal—The US Trade Representative’s office has handed in its yearly assessment on trade barriers by foreign countries. The section dealing with Mexico, the United States’ biggest commercial partner, is substantially bigger this year round.

  
  The complaints feature many of the now perennial problems the US has with Mexico, like the lack of a fair regulatory system or limitations to investment in the energy sector. This year saw complaints completely lacking in self-awareness too:
  

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Uncharted Mexico: Building bridges with the private sector

Private investment in construction has not done well under Morena governments, in power since 2018.

Source: INEGI

The big spike in the graph comes from substantial end of term investment by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the lead up to the 2024 elections. Once public investment was gone, construction collapsed once again.

This year has seen marginally better news with a noticeable rebound that has stopped the investment hemorrhage. The only issue is it has been driven by public spending once again but by a government that has made it clear that it wants the private sector to pick up the slack.

This is where a recently announced “infrastructure bill” sent to Congress comes into play. It aims to make the big infrastructure stimulus plan announced by the government last month a reality.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Diminished returns—Another year, another increase in the Mexican State’s tax receipts, but something’s changed. Although the first two months of the year showed record collection, the increase was only 2.6% greater than the first two months of 2025 (which had seen an increase of 10.1% from 2024). This is markedly less than any year since the pandemic.
  
  The numbers are still better than what the government estimated it would collect given the strong economic headwinds Mexico is facing. These include a 1.1% fall in manufacturing output and a 3.5% fall in consumer spending last month—the latter being the worst February fall since 2018.
  

• Surfing the high seas of online piracy—The sale of counterfeit goods has

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Second choice—After president Claudia Sheinbaum’s electoral reform was rejected by congressional allies (and a few members of her own party), a Plan B reform has been announced. This one will be less ambitious but will still require legislators at every level of the government (local congresses must approve congressional reforms) to reduce their own salaries and perks.
  
  The reductions in party budgets and their leaderships’ power over candidates will not be touched. Mexico’s party-ocracy remains intact.

• Conservative and liberal—Tomorrow marks the first official round table for the Joint Review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Mexico’s negotiating position will be simple, according to its Economy minister Marcelo Ebrard:

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Iran plan—Despite war in the Middle East driving up the price of oil close to $120 dollars at time of writing, the Mexican government says it has plans to limit price spikes at the pump.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Uncharted Mexico: Crime pays (poorly)

“There are no cars. No girls. Just fear for $3000 pesos.” The young man on screen speaks like an influencer, but is clothed in makeshift military attire, stained with blood, and soaked in sweat. His message: Don’t make my mistake and join a cartel. It’s a message tailored for the Mexican government in the days after the killing of Mexico’s top cartel boss, El Mencho. It was almost too perfect—and indeed, it was found that the video had been AI generated, but not before being seen by millions.

But something far more banal helped drive this exact point home. Along with weapons, authorities seized something that gave them far more insight into the life of a cartel: The spreadsheets detailing incomes and salaries for different ranks across the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG).

From the beginning of her administration, Claudia Sheinbaum promised to “attack the root causes” of cartel recruitment. At its heart sits Jóvenes Construyendo Futuro, a programme that gives young people access to government-funded paid internships. It has long been criticised for being inefficient and wasteful by the private sector. Yet, the government has insisted that it exists in large part to keep unemployed youngsters, ripe for cartel recruitment, off the streets.

Over 3.3 million people have received the internship grant.

Perhaps Jóvenes Construyendo Futuro won’t be enough to keep everyone away from cartels… But the idea that, even if all goes well, you’ll still end up doing spreadsheets like El Mencho, no doubt will put many a would-be narco off.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Reshuffle and resupply—Despite Mexican exports to the US reaching record highs, Mexico’s trade surplus with its northern neighbour is falling. It is a symptom of the reconfiguration of Mexico’s supply chains away from the rest of the world and towards the US.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Chinese backdoor?—Nissan blamed “changing consumer preferences” when it announced the closure of its central Mexican plant of Aguascalientes last year. But the context in which the announcement was made couldn’t be ignored, as Donald Trump set the North American auto-industry alight with tariffs. Now, two finalists have emerged from the bidding process to acquire the Nissan factory: BYD and Geely. Both Chinese auto companies have been hit by 50% tariffs imposed by Mexico earlier this year and are hoping to avoid paying them by setting up shop on Mexican soil.
  
  Most attention has been placed on whether or not the US will be upset about this development. The Mexican auto industry itself should be worried,

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