As a towering figure of Mexican politics, López Obrador led the charge himself, often through executive power. One of the core steps towards institutionalising his vision for a new Mexican State was through the creation of a new ministry in the executive branch: the Secretaría del Bienestar, the Welfare Secretariat.

Its job is—as many of its similar institutional predecessors’ had been—to help the poor, vulnerable, and disadvantaged. Unlike its predecessors, its approach was far more wide reaching—”sprawling” critics would say; “inclusive” fans would counter.

Even the government’s language regarding Mexico’s worst off changed with the Welfare Secretariat. There was shift from seeing the poor as a project to be uplifted by their betters through the Secretariat of Social Development (Sedesol) to the present-day perspective of considering them a valuable citizens simply in need of wellbeing and dignity.

With this in mind, the Welfare Secretariat replaced many conditional aid programmes with direct aid. This was heavily criticised by many as inefficient and regressive: The rich would suddenly be getting as much as Mexico’s very poorest.

The Morena government rebutted, arguing against the bloated and corrupt bureaucracies that made the poor leap through hoops to determine whether they were worthy of help. Subsequent research did find that the very poorest Mexicans in urban areas had indeed been excluded from otherwise successful conditional cash-transfer programmes.

The question now is, has the Welfare Secretariat been any better or has it been led down other less lofty paths?

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Have you told your friends?—The Mexico Political Economist is still looking to recruit Project Lead for the Plan Mexico Project. Have a look at the Job description and apply before May 5th.

• Tier-two takedown—El Mencho, the boss of Mexico’s most powerful cartel, was captured and killed in February. Now Mexican forces have successfully moved to capture El Mencho’s lieutenant—and possible successor—that got away.

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The Big News Breakdown. Unpacking this week’s most important news.

Tariffs on steel for heavy-duty vehicles from Mexico to the US will be halved from 50% to 25%. The tax has been one of Donald Trump’s biggest trade war blows against his neighbours, so Mexican industry is celebrating. The joy might be short-lived.

The Mexico Political Economist predicted that steel tariffs would hurt the very industry that Trump was trying to protect—the US auto industry. A year later, reports began to emerge that higher duties were putting the sector, and particularly heavy-duty truck makers, at a competitive disadvantage… with Mexican truck manufacturers.

Tariffs on trucks followed, which in turn saw the devastation of the Mexican heavy-vehicle manufacturing sector.

So, while the tariff relief on steel may seem like good news for Mexico, the conditions set by the US to qualify send worrying signals. It is a new policy that is both a recognition of how the US auto industry is inextricably linked with Mexico’s and one which seeks to remedy and reverse this dependence.

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Mexico is full of archeological gems. In this episode, Tavo and Alex actually head to some of the country’s less known, but just as spectacular sites, that give Teotihuacan or Chichen Itzá a run for their money.

Mexico: The Podcast is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube. Leave us a review and a comment, and for even more insider insights on Mexico, subscribe to www.mxpe.org

Mentioned in this episode:

The Mexico Political Economist is hiring!

The army bulldozes the Yucatán peninsula

The focus has since shifted towards how the revelation puts president Claudia Sheinbaum in a bind. How should the president, who has repeatedly rejected US interference, react? Will pushback throw a spanner in bilateral relations in the midst of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement negotiations? Will a timid response inflame the passions of Mexico’s—and her party’s—nationalists?

These are not new questions. The Central Intelligence Agency—the United States’ foreign intelligence and covert action body—has a long history in Mexico. It has been a surprisingly cosy one.

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The Big News Breakdown. Unpacking this week’s most important news.

The ascent of Roberto Velasco to Foreign Minister dominated the conversation two weeks ago. And rightly so: His arrival at the Foreign Office marked a generational shift and showed what sort of figure president Claudia Sheinbaum wants in her government, particularly when facing the Trump administration.

A departure from a relatively more minor office of State to an undefined role understandably got far less coverage. But perhaps it shouldn’t have, given that it may define the future of Mexican politics for years to come even more than the current Foreign Secretary.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• The clock is ticking!—Don’t miss your chance to join The Mexico Political Economist team. Here’s the Job description. Applications close on May 5th.
  

• Pemex-gate after Pemex-gate—It is now a well-known dynamic: Outrage at any accusation of wrongdoing followed by bewilderment that the accusations ended up being true. This is yet again the state of Pemex, Mexico’s State-run oil company, as it revealed that

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For reference, the Federal Reserve of the United States usually sets its baseline interest rate at about half that of Mexico’s. The difference is a matter of economic realism. Among other reasons, Mexico is seen as a riskier market so, Banxico sets its rates higher to entice creditors with higher returns to take the leap and lend more. In more stable economic times, it is best to bring interest down to entice borrowers with lower rates in order for them to take out loans—for a new car or the expansion of a factory.

It is a fine balance, so Banxico makes tweaks eight times a year to respond to the state of the national and global economies. The pandemic depressed consumption, so rates came down to boost borrowing and therefore keep economic growth up. The post-pandemic supply chain crisis interrupted the provision of critical components, like semiconductors, driving up prices, so Banxico put interest rates up to dissuade anyone with a credit card from driving prices up further by buying that extra laptop.

Over the past few years, Banxico has been on a mission to lower its baseline interest rate from highs of 11.5% to closer to its target rate of about 3%. They want to get people and businesses borrowing again to get Mexico’s stagnating economy growing. And then came the war in Iran.

Among conflicting rumours about how long the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would go on for or how big the oil shock would be, most central banks opted for caution. The US Fed and the Bank of England kept their rates unchanged. Banxico lowered its own.

By the size of the reaction to this decision, one might think the Mexican central bank had made a massive cut. In reality, it was a relatively mild one—from 7% to 6.75%. Nevertheless, the decision was seen by many as not only the wrong one given the situation, but as evidence that the central bank had lost its autonomy, succumbing to political pressures. (Purportedly because lower rates would keep money flowing into the Mexican economy even if it risked pushing inflation up).

Both sides of the debate blamed politics. Supporters of the ruling Morena party accused the opposition of sabotage; anti-government types accused the Banxico’s Board of Governors of politically motivated malfeasance.

Speak to professional economists steeped in monetary policy—as The Mexico Political Economist did for this report—and the debate is markedly different. According to economists in Banxico and outside of it, as well as to those for and against the government, there is a problem with the Mexican central bank. It’s just not one connected to this one decision or even to day-to-day party politics—it’s much worse.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• The Mexico Political Economist is hiring—Had you not heard? Take a look at the job description. Perhaps you’ll become our next Project Lead! Applications close on May 5th.

• Guilty until proven innocent—The news about fracking overshadowed what in most other moments would have been by far the biggest news—and debate—of the week.

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The Big News Breakdown. Unpacking this week’s most important news.

Mexico had placed the noose of natural gas dependency around its neck long before conflict with Iran strangled global hydrocarbon supplies. The country generates most of its electricity by burning natural gas, of which 75% is imported from the United States. The age of economic warfare must have had an effect on Claudia Sheinbaum’s government because last week the president announced that Mexico would now allow fracking.

It is a substantial—and rare—U-turn from her own and her predecessor’s policy.

Sheinbaum officials had been mulling the move for some time now, so the green light wasn’t all too surprising. What did raise eyebrows was how the Mexican government will try to square all of its aims.

When it comes to fracking, Sheinbaum said she intends to:

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This is part II of the past and present of Chapultepec park.

Mexico: The Podcast is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube. Leave us a review and a comment, and for even more insider insights on Mexico, subscribe to www.mxpe.org

Mentioned in this episode:

How the government took back control of the feral sections of Chapultepec

Mexico: The Podcast going hard against Morena party policy

We are looking to hire a full-time Project Lead at The Mexico Political Economist. If chosen, you will help coordinate and research the Plan México Project.

Applicants must be well versed in Mexico’s political economy. You must understand and balance the interests and motivations of both the business sector—entrepreneurs, SMEs, titans of industry, and investors—as well as governmental and political actors.

You must have a proven ability to make and interview contacts across both the private and public sectors. Knowledge of data analytics or data journalism is a significant plus, as is previous experience in industrial policy.

This is not an academic role. You must be able to express your findings in a clear, crisp, and entertaining way. If you’re wondering what this means precisely, making yourself familiar with the style of The Mexico Political Economist wouldn’t be a bad place to start.

Subscribe now

If chosen, you will get to talk to the country’s biggest movers and shakers, and be part of the conversation around the most ambitious industrial policy plan in Mexico’s recent history.

This will be a competitively paid year-long consultancy starting towards the middle of 2026.

What is the Plan México Project?

The Plan México Project is an initiative to create clear and actionable roadmaps to propel investment in a small number of key industries. The sectors named in Plan México—the Mexican government’s flagship industrial policy—will be the Project’s point of departure.

This undertaking will be, at its core, an exercise in investigative journalism. You and the team at The Mexico Political Economist will be boarding each sector impartially as a specialist reporter. Through research, data analysis, and interviews, you will help dissect each industry and identify those best suited for immediate development.

With every deep dive you will aid the team in producing either an action plan to pursue or a reason why this sector might be best de-prioritised for now. Either way, both will be published to a wide audience in the form of an engaging and non-technical journalistic report.

Those sectors that do pass to the next phase will be subdivided into their most promising sub-sectors. The Project will see you drill down to specific industries, geographies, and even individual key business and governmental actors that will, in conjunction, kickstart the projects that will most develop the economy.

The final conclusion will be to produce a handful of detailed roadmaps (also presented as journalistic reports) for achievable, winning projects that will be:

1. Cheap to launch

2. Quick to kick-off

3. Scalable to the benefit of workers, consumers, and businesses alike

4. A quick win for other investors to see the unlocked potential in Mexico

As the Project’s Lead you will be involved in:

1. Collecting data and conducting other research around each sector

2. Identifying, contacting, and interviewing relevant actors in the public, private, academic, and social arenas

3. Writing the final journalistic reports that will publish the Project’s findings

4. Helping with the Project’s social media, coordinating media appearances, and events to broadcast its findings

For more on the Plan Mexico Project click here.

What is The Mexico Political Economist?

The Mexico Political Economist was born two years ago as an outlet that delivers concise and engaging reporting about the Mexican economy, business, politics, and public policy. It balances its role as an access ramp to Mexico for those with little knowledge of the country—but who need to understand it as decision-makers—with its role as a dependable source of in-depth information and analysis for top Mexico experts.

The Mexico Political Economist has rapidly become a must-read newsletter for global policymakers, investors, academics, and business people. It lands in inboxes across the US State Department, the European Commission, the Mexican finance ministry, the international desks of top news sites, and the CEOs of the largest companies in Mexico and beyond.

How to apply

Applicants should send an “extended pitch.” This will be a brief proposal revolving around a sector of the Plan México you’d like to address. It should include:

• A brief introductory analysis of the sector. Why have you chosen it?

• An explanation of how you’d approach this sector for the Plan México Project

• Interviewees: These are not people you will hope to reach out to, but rather those with whom you are already in touch and/or are pretty certain will give you an interview. Ideally, you’ll be able to have a brief conversation with them beforehand both to prove you’re in contact and also to bolster the credibility of your pitch.

• A final brief paragraph on who you are and why you are best suited to the position of Project Lead.

The entire pitch should not go over 500 words.

Send your application to apply@mxpe.org by 5th May, 2026.

The Big News Breakdown. Unpacking this week’s most important news.

It’s a song and dance as old as time: When a President names a trusted figure who is not a career diplomat to high office, the procession of disapproving sounds from critics who bemoan the hollowing out of the foreign service follows inevitably.

Thus it was last week, when Roberto Velasco was named Mexico’s newest Foreign Minister. His youth, coupled with his meteoric rise baited critics who were already displeased by the fact that 38-year-old Velasco is not a career diplomat.

“A course isn’t enough,” decried one op-ed, referring to the course political appointees to top diplomatic positions get at Mexico’s prestigious foreign affairs academy, the Matías Romero Institute. Its mere existence suggests that this isn’t the first time this course has been needed to polish up the skills of amateur ambassadors-to-be.

Something is actually different this time though. Luckily for Velasco, in the age of Trump, previous handicaps may well now be advantages.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Last week’s highlights:

• Own goal—The US Trade Representative’s office has handed in its yearly assessment on trade barriers by foreign countries. The section dealing with Mexico, the United States’ biggest commercial partner, is substantially bigger this year round.

  
  The complaints feature many of the now perennial problems the US has with Mexico, like the lack of a fair regulatory system or limitations to investment in the energy sector. This year saw complaints completely lacking in self-awareness too:
  

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Holy Week is slightly after Spring Break in the United States, making these weeks the first big travel spike of the year after the January and February slowdown. Yet, just as Semana Santa shifts depending on the liturgical calendar from late March to late April, who goes where is also affected by tidal economic and social forces.

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MXPE Weekly Essentials. Only the most important news in Mexican politics, policy, and markets from the past week.

Uncharted Mexico: Building bridges with the private sector

Private investment in construction has not done well under Morena governments, in power since 2018.

Source: INEGI

The big spike in the graph comes from substantial end of term investment by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the lead up to the 2024 elections. Once public investment was gone, construction collapsed once again.

This year has seen marginally better news with a noticeable rebound that has stopped the investment hemorrhage. The only issue is it has been driven by public spending once again but by a government that has made it clear that it wants the private sector to pick up the slack.

This is where a recently announced “infrastructure bill” sent to Congress comes into play. It aims to make the big infrastructure stimulus plan announced by the government last month a reality.

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Mexico: The Podcast is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube. Leave us a review and a comment, and for even more insider insights on Mexico, subscribe to www.mxpe.org

Mentioned in this episode:

Our episode on Cinco de Mayo

The year before that Mar-a-Lago interview, Televisa had acquired 45% of Univision and people started noticing changes in coverage. Journalists went from shouting down Trump in his first term over his treatment of migrants to un-factchecked TV appearances in the lead up to the 2024 election.

There were many reasons behind the substantial Hispanic swing that got Donald Trump elected a second time. Many believe a big one was Univision’s turn from hard-core opponent to a pro-Trump “propaganda project”. They specifically blamed the merger that resulted in TelevisaUnivision in 2022, pushing Univision away from confrontation and towards the self-interested compromise with the powers that be that for decades had defined Televisa.

This interpretation is oversimplified. True, Televisa had been created as a blindly pro-government outlet during the one-party rule of the PRI. But that hadn’t been the case since the twentieth century. Since then, business, rather than political considerations, took the wheel.

Back in 2023, it was not obvious Trump would win, let alone by a substantial margin. What Televisa executives brought to the table can’t have been a blind subservience to power, but rather a page out of their broader business playbook. One that ruthlessly turned the way the market winds were blowing, and one that dictates the company’s practices to this day.

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The Big News Breakdown. Unpacking this week’s most important news.

The yearly gathering of Mexico’s bankers has always hosted Mexican government officials. This time the feeling was different—and not in the way described last year with the arrival of a freshly-minted president Claudia Sheinbaum, whose administration has been seen as more pro-business than her predecessor’s.

The difference is one of tension—but in a good way, Fernando Gamez Carrillo, a compliance and risk manager in the Mexican banking sector, told The Mexico Political Economist.

“Both sides are challenging each other—in a good way. There is a sense of mutual responsibility,“ he said.

For first time it feels like both sides actually want to talk to each other. The resulting conversations consequently feel more like negotiations. Both sides agree the direction they want the country to go in—towards more investment and economic growth. It is the way each wants to get there that they are currently working out.

To get there, the Mexican banking sector had to wrestle with three fundamental questions at this year’s Banking Convention in Cancún:

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